The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its forecast for the 2025 southwest monsoon (June to September), predicting above-normal rainfall across the country. According to IMD, rainfall during this monsoon season is expected to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±5%. The LPA for all-India rainfall (1971–2020) is 87 cm.
The report indicates that the monsoon may begin on a weaker note in June but is likely to pick up pace in July and August. The second half of the monsoon season is expected to perform better than the first, with good rainfall during the peak monsoon months.
Private weather agency Skymet suggests that western and southern parts of India may receive above-normal rainfall. States like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa are likely to witness good monsoon activity. In contrast, northeastern states such as Meghalaya and Sikkim, along with hilly regions in the north like Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, may experience below-normal rainfall.
Currently, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific are neutral. However, atmospheric circulation patterns resemble La Niña-like behavior. Climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), suggest that neutral ENSO conditions will likely persist throughout the monsoon season. Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also in a neutral phase and is expected to remain stable during the monsoon.
Snow Cover and Its Influence: Between January and March 2025, the snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia remained below normal. Historically, lower snow cover during winter and spring is associated with enhanced Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
Revised Forecasting Strategy Since 2021: Since 2003, IMD has been issuing long-range forecasts for the southwest monsoon in two stages—first in April and an updated forecast in May. In 2021, IMD adopted a new forecasting strategy that incorporates both dynamical and statistical models. The April forecast includes quantitative and probabilistic rainfall predictions for the country as a whole. The May update provides region-wise forecasts for Northwest India, Central India, the South Peninsula, and Northeast India, along with updated national forecasts.
Rainfall Probability and Distribution: According to the IMD, there is a 59% probability that the 2025 monsoon will fall under the ‘above normal’ category (>104% of LPA). This prediction is based on initial conditions from April using a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) of global climate models. Spatial distribution maps suggest that most parts of the country are likely to receive above-normal rainfall. However, some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India, and parts of the southern peninsula may receive below-normal rainfall. Certain regions show no clear signal, implying equal chances for all three rainfall categories (above normal, normal, and below normal).
