Early signals for India’s 2026 monsoon season suggest a slightly weaker performance this year. According to the India Meteorological Department, the southwest monsoon is expected to remain below normal. Total rainfall between June and September is projected to be around 90% to 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at approximately 87 cm.
Weather experts indicate a growing likelihood of El Niño developing this year, which could weaken the Indian monsoon. Typically, El Niño leads to warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, often resulting in reduced rainfall across India.
At present, the Indian Ocean Dipole remains in a neutral phase. However, there are indications that it may shift to a positive phase during the latter half of the monsoon season, which could partially offset the adverse impact of El Niño. The IMD continues to closely monitor sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as they play a crucial role in determining the intensity and distribution of rainfall.
According to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, seasonal rainfall across the country is likely to be around 92% of the LPA, with a model error margin of ±5%.
He also noted that snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere during January to March was slightly below normal. Historically, winter and spring snow cover in this region shows an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon, which could influence rainfall patterns this year. The IMD typically releases its first monsoon forecast in mid-April, followed by an updated outlook towards the end of May.
A weaker monsoon could directly affect the sowing and productivity of key kharif crops. Crops such as soybean, paddy, maize, and pulses rely heavily on timely and adequate rainfall. Any shortfall in precipitation may impact crop yields and farm incomes.
FAQs:
Q1. What is the IMD forecast for India monsoon 2026?
The IMD predicts rainfall at around 90% to 95% of the Long Period Average, indicating a slightly below-normal monsoon.
Q2. Will El Niño affect the 2026 monsoon?
Yes, there is a growing possibility of El Niño, which may weaken the southwest monsoon and reduce rainfall.
Q3. What is the Long Period Average (LPA)?
LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded between 1971 and 2020, used as a benchmark for monsoon predictions.
Q4. Which crops are most affected by weak monsoon?
Kharif crops such as paddy, soybean, maize, and pulses are most dependent on monsoon rainfall.
Q5. How can farmers stay updated about monsoon trends?
Farmers can follow updates from IMD and agri platforms like Khetivyapar for timely weather and crop advisories.
