India’s weather pattern could undergo another major shift after the southwest monsoon begins to withdraw. A seasonal assessment linked to the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) indicates that around three tropical cyclonic systems could develop over the North Indian Ocean between October and December 2026.
The assessment also points to a potentially active post-monsoon cyclone season, with the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) estimated to be around 83% above the average of the past 44 years. However, this does not mean that three cyclones will necessarily make landfall in India. The assessment indicates the possible overall level of seasonal cyclonic activity rather than the location or timing of individual storms.
The October-December period is considered an important post-monsoon window for cyclone formation over the North Indian Ocean. According to the assessment, around three tropical cyclonic systems could develop during the 2026 post-monsoon season.
Reports citing the assessment put the projected PDI at approximately 13.06 × 10⁶ knots³, compared with a 44-year average of around 7.15 × 10⁶ knots³ for 1982-2025. The higher projected value indicates the possibility of substantially greater overall cyclone-related energy during the season compared with the long-term average.
The Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is used to assess the overall energy associated with tropical cyclone activity. It takes into account factors related to the strength and duration of cyclones. Therefore, an estimated 83% increase in PDI should not be interpreted as an 83% increase in the number of cyclones or wind speed. Instead, it indicates a potentially higher level of cumulative cyclone activity and energy during the season.
At this stage, it cannot be determined where or when individual cyclones will make landfall. A seasonal outlook generally indicates the broader likelihood or intensity of cyclone activity. The actual formation, movement, strengthening and landfall of a particular system depend on atmospheric and oceanic conditions closer to the event. The Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are both important cyclone-generating regions within the North Indian Ocean. Once a system develops, weather agencies can provide more specific forecasts regarding its track, intensity and potential impact.
If a strong cyclone approaches a coastal region, it could bring heavy to very heavy rainfall, strong winds, rough seas and coastal waterlogging. Low-lying areas could face an increased risk of flooding, while strong winds and heavy rain may disrupt roads, railways, and electricity and communication networks. However, the actual severity of any impact will depend on the cyclone's strength, movement and landfall location, which cannot be established from the seasonal outlook alone.
Rain and Gusty Winds Expected Over Haryana, Delhi, Punjab and UP:
Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi may receive isolated rainfall between September 17 and 20. Punjab could see rainfall on September 18-19, while parts of West Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh may receive rain during September 17-19. East Uttar Pradesh is likely to experience isolated rainfall between September 17 and 21.
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On September 17, Punjab and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi may experience thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds. Wind speeds could reach 40-50 kmph, with gusts up to 60 kmph. In East Rajasthan, gusty winds of 30-40 kmph, occasionally reaching 50 kmph in gusts, are possible between September 17 and 19.
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh to Remain Weather-Active:
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is also likely to remain under active weather conditions over the coming days. In West Madhya Pradesh, isolated rainfall is possible on September 17 and again during September 20-22. The region may also receive rainfall at several places during September 18-19.
East Madhya Pradesh could experience fairly widespread rainfall on September 17-18, followed by isolated rainfall during September 19-22. In Vidarbha, isolated rainfall is expected during September 17-21, while fairly widespread rainfall may occur on September 22. Chhattisgarh may receive isolated rainfall on September 17-18, with rainfall becoming more widespread during September 19-22. Thunderstorms and lightning are also likely over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh between September 17 and 20. Chhattisgarh could additionally experience isolated heavy rainfall during September 20-22.
FAQs:
1. How many tropical cyclones could develop in 2026?
Around three tropical cyclonic systems could develop over the North Indian Ocean between October and December 2026, according to the seasonal assessment.
2. What does the cyclone forecast 2026 indicate?
The cyclone forecast 2026 indicates the possibility of an active post-monsoon cyclone season, but it does not specify the exact timing, track or landfall of individual cyclones.
3. What is the Power Dissipation Index (PDI)?
The Power Dissipation Index measures the overall energy associated with tropical cyclone activity by considering factors such as cyclone strength and duration.
4. Will these cyclones hit India?
It cannot be determined from the seasonal outlook whether these systems will make landfall in India. Their track and intensity can be assessed more accurately after individual systems develop.
5. Which states may see rain and strong winds in September?
Parts of Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh may experience rainfall, thunderstorms or gusty winds during the specified period.
