India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its seasonal outlook for the second half of the Southwest Monsoon 2026 (August–September), indicating that rainfall across the country is likely to remain below normal during the period. However, several parts of central India, the peninsular region, northern northwest India, and isolated areas of eastern and northeastern India are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
According to meteorologists, the strengthening El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to influence the monsoon circulation, increasing the probability of rainfall deficits across many parts of India during the remaining monsoon season.
IMD's seasonal forecast suggests that cumulative rainfall during August and September 2026 is likely to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing it in the below-normal rainfall category. Most regions of the country are expected to receive less rainfall than usual. However, central India, large parts of peninsular India, northern sections of northwest India, and selected areas of eastern and northeastern India may experience normal or above-normal rainfall, highlighting significant regional variations in monsoon performance.
The weather department has also projected above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the country during August. A few locations in northwest India, central India, and adjoining southern peninsular regions may record near-normal or slightly below-normal daytime temperatures. Meanwhile, minimum temperatures are expected to remain normal to above normal across most regions, resulting in warmer nights and increased humidity.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate El Niño conditions, with sea surface temperatures remaining above average over the central and eastern Pacific. According to the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS), El Niño is likely to strengthen further during the remainder of the Southwest Monsoon season. As El Niño typically weakens India's monsoon circulation, its continued intensification could reduce rainfall over several regions during August and September.
What Does This Mean for Farmers?
With below-normal rainfall expected across many parts of the country, farmers are advised to adopt climate-resilient agricultural practices and closely monitor local weather advisories. Prioritize moisture conservation and efficient water management in rain-deficit regions. Plan sowing, irrigation, and other farm operations based on district-level weather forecasts. Adopt water-saving practices such as mulching and maintain proper field drainage where necessary. Stay updated with the latest advisories issued by the India Meteorological Department and local agricultural agencies to minimize weather-related risks.
FAQs:
1. What does the IMD Monsoon Forecast 2026 predict?
The IMD Monsoon Forecast 2026 predicts below-normal rainfall across India during August and September, with rainfall likely to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average.
2. Why is rainfall expected to be below normal?
The main reason is the strengthening El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean, which generally weaken India's southwest monsoon.
3. Which regions may receive normal or above-normal rainfall?
Central India, peninsular India, northern parts of northwest India, and isolated areas of eastern and northeastern India are expected to receive normal or above-normal rainfall.
4. How will the forecast affect farmers?
Farmers in rain-deficit areas should focus on water conservation, efficient irrigation, and follow local weather advisories to protect their crops.
5. Where can farmers get the latest monsoon updates?
Farmers can stay informed through the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and regular agriculture updates published by Khetivyapar.
