Millions of farmers across India rely on the monsoon for their Kharif crops, which form a major part of their livelihood. Accurate and timely forecasts can help them decide what to plant, when to sow, and how much area to cover. This has now become possible through a breakthrough in artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather forecasting.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoAFW) has launched a unique initiative this year by sending AI-generated monsoon forecasts to nearly 38 million farmers across 13 states through SMS under the m-Kisan platform. Remarkably, these forecasts were made available up to four weeks earlier than usual, allowing farmers to plan the Kharif season more effectively. Experts call this the world’s first large-scale dissemination of AI weather forecasts directly to farmers.
On September 8, at a review meeting in Krishi Bhavan, Additional Secretary Dr. Pramod Kumar Meherda and Joint Secretary Shri Sanjay Kumar Agarwal met Nobel Laureate and University of Chicago Professor Michael Kremer to discuss this historic initiative and its future expansion.
Dr. Meherda highlighted that AI-based forecasts give farmers early insights into continuous rainfall patterns, enabling them to farm with confidence while reducing risks.
This year, the monsoon arrived early but witnessed a 20-day mid-season pause. The AI-based models accurately predicted this interruption, and farmers were sent weekly updates until consistent rains resumed. Shri Agarwal noted that with climate change increasing weather unpredictability, AI-powered forecasts will be a vital adaptation tool for farmers.
Since 2022, AI technology has transformed weather prediction science, making it possible to forecast complex patterns like the monsoon weeks in advance. For this program, MoAFW used Google’s Neural GCM and the ECMWF’s AI Forecasting System (AIFS). Evaluations showed these models to be more accurate than traditional forecasting methods.
NITI Aayog Member Prof. Ramesh Chand emphasized that the initiative is valuable because it delivers forecasts in simple language tailored to farmers’ needs, helping them make better agricultural decisions.
A Milestone for Farmers: The program worked in collaboration with Development Innovation Lab - India and Precision Development to ensure that messages were farmer-friendly and actionable. Nobel Laureate Michael Kremer praised the effort, calling it a “landmark achievement” that has benefited millions of farmers and positioned India as a global leader in AI-driven weather forecasting.
